Week 11 of NFL season features a healthy slate of 14 games. The week kicks off with an NFC East battle in prime time Thursday night as Jalen Hurts and the Philadelphia Eagles welcome rookie sensation Jayden Daniels and the Washington Commanders for “Thursday Night Football” from Lincoln Financial Field.
The slate continues with 12 games on Sunday, including Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens taking on Russell Wilson and the Pittsburgh Steelers for AFC North supremacy.
Perhaps the most interesting game of Sunday afternoon is a crucial AFC showdown between Patrick Mahomes‘ Kansas City Chiefs and Josh Allen‘s Buffalo Bills. The week wraps up with an all-Texas battle as the Houston Texans face the Dallas Cowboys on “Monday Night Football” (8:15 p.m. ET on ESPN/ABC).
Our team takes an early look at Week 11 odds to find value before lines move later in the week.
Odds current as of publish time, courtesy of ESPN BET
Joe Fortenbaugh’s first bet: Pittsburgh Steelers (+3.5) over Baltimore Ravens
Last week: San Francisco 49ers (-6.5) over Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Line closed at 49ers (-6.5). 49ers won 23-20.
In the long, storied history of the Mike Tomlin vs. John Harbaugh rivalry, the underdog is a staggering 23-6-3 against the spread. For the math impaired, that’s a hit rate of 79.3%. In this situation, we’re getting the Steelers as home dogs of more than a field goal … and we all know Tomlin’s history and success rate in the underdog position. Additionally, the worst of the four units taking the field on Sunday will be the Baltimore defense, specifically the pass defense, which will open up the field for Russell Wilson to make just enough plays to cover this number. Believe it or not, Lamar Jackson has accounted for a grand total of just four touchdowns — passing and rushing — in his career against the Steelers.
Ben Solak’s first bet: Denver Broncos (-1.5) over Atlanta Falcons
Last week: San Francisco 49ers–Tampa Bay Buccaneers OVER 47.5 (-115). Line closed at 41.5. 49ers won 23-20.
You have to keep your eyes out for a letdown spot here in Denver, as a devastating loss like the one they suffered in Kansas City is difficult to overcome emotionally. But I think they’ll bounce back strong as the AFC wild-card race is still in reach and they’re heading back to their home stadium. I continue looking to fade the Falcons against any team that can pressure Cousins in the pocket, as his lack of mobility is a crippling weakness to this passing game. The Broncos certainly fit that bill.
Tyler Fulghum’s first bet: Washington Commanders (+3.5) at Philadelphia Eagles
Last week: Commanders-Steelers UNDER 44.5 (-110). Line closed at 45.5 points. Steelers won 28-27.
This seems more likely to move to 3 than 4, and if that’s the case I want in on the Commanders. Even though Washington lost to the Steelers in Week 10, that was a coin flip game that they easily could have won. If they did, we wouldn’t have this number posted in the market. Nick Sirianni and the Eagles are coming off a dominant win over the Dallas Cowboys, but that should be excused by the poor state of the Cowboys more than anything. I trust Jayden Daniels and Dan Quinn to keep this game close. Washington is live on the money line, as well. They can win this game outright. It should be a good one.
Andre Snellings’ first bet: Green Bay Packers (-6) over Chicago Bears
Last week: Denver Broncos (+9) over Kansas City Chiefs. Line closed at Chiefs -7.5. Chiefs won 16-14.
The Bears are struggling right now. They haven’t scored a touchdown on their last 23 offensive possessions, and daily we see analysts break down how the failures are from the top down, from scheme to execution, from coach to design to player. It just doesn’t sound like something that will be fixed in six days. The Packers, meanwhile, have had a bye week to get healthier and to reset after their 10-point loss to the Detroit Lions in Week 9. They had won four straight games before that and should come out of the bye motivated to start their playoff push. The Bears lost by 16 points in Week 10, at home, against a struggling New England Patriots team. Look for the Packers to match or exceed that effort in Chicago on Sunday.
Pamela Maldonado’s first bet: Indianapolis Colts at New York Jets under 44 points
Last week: Indiana Hoosiers to win the Big Ten Championship (+1100)
A matchup of offensive struggles and defensive strengths. The Jets have been one of the lowest-scoring teams in the league, averaging 17 points per game. Their offense has struggled to find consistency, especially in the passing game, averaging 182 yards per game over the past three weeks. The Colts’ defense has shown improvement in recent weeks, particularly against the run, which could limit the Jets’ offensive options.
The Colts’ offense may also face challenges against a tough Jets defense that has kept opponents in check for much of the season. With both teams likely to employ conservative game plans and rely on their defenses, the total of 44 points seems high for what could be a grind-it-out, field position battle.
