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Bill Connelly, ESPN Staff Writer
Every tournament takes on its own personality. Sometimes we get a load of early-round upsets, which can often lead to later-round blowouts of Cinderellas. Sometimes we get early chalk, which isn’t particularly entertaining but produces some titanic later-round contests.
The 2024 FCS playoffs elected to go with the latter. The first two rounds weren’t without their entertainment: Lehigh upset Richmond in the first round; Illinois State won a wild turnover festival over Southeast Missouri State; and 10 of 16 games featured a team scoring at least 34 points (points are fun).
But the top eight seeds all advanced to the quarterfinals with minimal drama. And that gives us four particularly intriguing matchups to look forward to this weekend.
• No. 8 Idaho at No. 1 Montana State (Friday, 9 p.m. ET, ESPN)
• No. 6 Incarnate Word at No. 3 South Dakota State (Saturday, noon, ESPN)
• No. 5 UC Davis at No. 4 South Dakota (Saturday, 3 p.m., ESPN+)
• No. 7 Mercer at No. 2 North Dakota State (Saturday, 3:30 p.m., ABC)
Omitting games against FBS teams and each other, Montana State, South Dakota State, North Dakota State and South Dakota are a combined 41-0 against the rest of the FCS and 3-0 against the other four quarterfinalists. MSU and SDSU, in fact, already walloped their quarterfinal opponents — SDSU beat UIW 45-24 in Week 2, and MSU beat Idaho 38-7 in mid-October.
In other words, we could have another round of chalk before a truly titanic set of semifinals. But each of the four underdogs is only a break or two from making things awkward. Let’s take a look at each matchup, in chronological order.
Playoff results to date: MSU def. UT Martin 49-17; Idaho def. Lehigh 34-13
Offensive SP+ rankings: MSU first, Idaho 19th
Defensive SP+ rankings: MSU second, Idaho 19th
College football often makes you wait your turn. Kirby Smart’s Georgia lost four straight to Nick Saban’s Alabama dynasty before finally breaking through in 2021. South Dakota State lost to North Dakota State 12 of 14 times between 2010 and 2019, including four times in the playoffs, before winning five in a row and taking the past two national titles. Ferris State lost in the Division II semis or finals three times in four years, then won two straight titles. Wisconsin-Whitewater took the Division III mantle from Mount Union, then relinquished it to Mary Hardin-Baylor, which yielded to North Central.
We don’t know that South Dakota State is ready to let go of its grip on FCS just yet. The Jackrabbits aren’t as dominant as last year’s all-time squad, but they’re still quite capable of winning three more games and a third straight title. That said, Montana State has been the best team in the country to this point. The Bobcats are first in SP+, first in scoring offense, first in total offense, second in rushing yards per game, second in pass efficiency, sixth in scoring defense and seventh in total defense.
Quarterback Tommy Mellott has thrown for 2,256 yards with a 26-1 TD-to-INT ratio and 659 rushing yards. Scottre Humphrey and Adam Jones have combined for 2,298 rushing yards and 24 TDs, and, in the ultracompetitive Big Sky, eight Bobcats — Mellott, Humphrey, fullback Rohan Jones, offensive linemen Marcus Wehr and Conner Moore, defensive end Brody Grebe, linebacker McCade O’Reilly, and DB Rylan Ortt — earned first-team all-conference honors.
The Bobcats have definitely waited their turn. Since returning to the FCS playoffs in 2018, they’ve reached the semis or the finals three times, and they’ve been eliminated by either NDSU or SDSU in every playoff trip. But the margins of defeat — 32, then 28, then 28, then 21, then one point last season — certainly suggest a closing gap. But before worrying about NDSU or SDSU, they have to win two more games, including a rematch with Idaho.
Behind Mellott’s 121 passing yards, 140 rushing yards and four combined touchdowns, MSU rolled to a 24-0 halftime lead and cruised 38-7 in the first MSU-Idaho game this year. Total yards: MSU 485, Idaho 267. It was a mismatch, but if there’s hope for Jason Eck’s Vandals, it comes from two things. First, they’re really good, and it’s hard to beat a really good team twice. Second, Idaho quarterback Jack Layne is back.
Layne threw and rushed for a touchdown against Oregon in the season opener but missed two months to injury. In his past three games since returning, he’s 52-for-72 passing for 830 yards, 9 touchdowns and only 1 interception. Receivers Jordan Dwyer and Mark Hamper have caught 38 balls for 674 yards and eight TDs in these three games. The Idaho offense has shifted into gear, and the defense defends the run awfully well, at least against teams not named Montana State. This is in no way a slam dunk for the Bobcats.
ESPN BET projection: MSU 33.5, Idaho 22.0 (MSU -11.5, over/under 55.5)
SP+ projection: MSU 38.3, Idaho 19.0
Playoff results to date: SDSU def. Montana 35-18; UIW def. Villanova 13-6
Offensive SP+ rankings: SDSU third, UIW 14th
Defensive SP+ rankings: SDSU first, UIW 13th
The second quarterfinal is also a rematch. Zach Calzada‘s 69-yard touchdown pass to Jalen Walthall tied UIW’s Week 2 game at SDSU at 17-17 early in the third quarter, and a 35-yard Calzada-to-Roy Alexander touchdown cut SDSU’s lead to 31-24 early in the fourth. The Jackrabbits put away a 45-24 win with a touchdown-turnover-touchdown knockout blow, but UIW outgained SDSU on a per-play basis, 7.1 to 7.0. It was a battle.
Calzada, a former Texas A&M and Auburn quarterback, has thrown for 3,533 yards and 34 TDs, with both Walthall and Alexander topping 1,000 receiving yards. Calzada and Walthall are two of six first-team All-Southland offensive players for Incarnate Word. And while the defense didn’t fare incredibly well in Brookings (or the next week in a 35-28 loss to Southern Illinois), the Cardinals have held six of their past eight opponents to 20 or fewer points, with four players, led by linebacker Mister Williams, recording at least 11 tackles for loss. The 2022 semifinalists have won 10 in a row.
SDSU, however, is still SDSU. The Jacks boast a pair of All-Missouri Valley linemen (Evan Beerntsen and Gus Miller) from a unit that averages 6-foot-4 and 304 pounds and clears the way for a trio of running backs led by Amar Johnson. Meanwhile, quarterback and 2023 Walter Payton Award winner Mark Gronowski has rarely been asked to carry much of a load this season (he has thrown more than 25 passes just once in SDSU’s past five games) but has thrown for 2,341 yards and 19 TDs.
The SDSU defense will likely determine whether this is a game. The Jacks have allowed just 12.9 points per game, 9.0 since UIW left town. They have five first-team All-MVFC players, led by stalwart safety Tucker Large and tackling-machine linebacker Adam Bock. They’ve been untouchable of late, but UIW did rough them up a bit the last time these teams met. SDSU can win a track meet if necessary, but that also might be the only way UIW can pull an upset.
ESPN BET projection: SDSU 36.5, UIW 18.0 (SDSU -18.5, over/under 54.5)
SP+ projection: SDSU 32.2, UIW 18.3
Playoff results to date: NDSU def. Abilene Christian 51-31; Mercer def. Rhode Island 17-10
Offensive SP+ rankings: NDSU second, Mercer 16th
Defensive SP+ rankings: Mercer seventh, NDSU 10th
Mercer won its first-ever playoff game last season before falling in the second round to South Dakota State. Mike Jacobs’ Bears have one-upped themselves this season with their first trip to the quarterfinals, but now FCS’ other heavyweight awaits. NDSU is six points from an unbeaten record in Tim Polasek’s first season in charge and has scored at least 51 points in three of its past five games.
Quarterback Cam Miller, the Missouri Valley’s offensive player of the year, has completed 74% of his passes, and No. 1 receiver Bryce Lance — brother of Trey — has a pair of 100-yard games. As is always the case, the Bison will lean on the run as long as you let them, and with CharMar Brown and Barika Kpeenu running behind a line that averages 6-5, 304 pounds, they get to lean on the run a lot.
This isn’t the best NDSU defense ever; the Bison have allowed at least 24 points on five occasions and at least 21 in three straight games. But the front seven still has disruptive anchors in end Eli Mostaert and linebacker Logan Kopp, and that’s important against a Mercer offense that boasts a dynamite running back (Dwayne McGee, with 1,132 yards) but a freshman quarterback. Whitt Newbauer took over for injured DJ Smith late in the season, and although Smith played a small role with his legs against Rhode Island last week, the game plan featured heavy doses of McGee and backup CJ Miller (combined: 31 carries, 195 yards). Newbauer went 10-for-20 for just 57 yards and got sacked four times. If the Bears can’t run the ball well, they aren’t going to score much.
Of course, they also make sure their opponents don’t run the ball well. They’re allowing an FCS-low 66.9 rushing yards per game, 2.3 per carry (3.3 without sacks). Young ends Brayden Manley and Andrew Zock have combined for 30 TFLs and 15 sacks.
If you like burly manball, this game is for you. NDSU’s run game against Mercer’s run defense will be appointment viewing.
ESPN BET projection: NDSU 36.3, Mercer 17.3 (NDSU -19, over/under 53.5)
SP+ projection: NDSU 30.8, Mercer 19.1
Playoff results to date: USD def. Tarleton State 42-31; UCD def. Illinois State 42-10
Offensive SP+ rankings: USD fourth, UCD ninth
Defensive SP+ rankings: USD fifth, UCD 15th
UC Davis made waves this week in announcing it was joining the Mountain West for all sports except football. The football team will remain an affiliate member of the Big Sky, but make no mistake: These Aggies could have competed well in the MWC this year.
Former Boise State offensive coordinator Tim Plough took over for retired Dan Hawkins at Davis and immediately brought the Aggies back to the playoffs for the first time in three years. Their 30-28 loss to Montana State on Nov. 16 was the Bobcats’ only close call all season against an FCS team, and, in their first playoff win since 2018 (and second ever) they blew No. 12 Illinois State’s doors off, 42-10, last week.
All-purpose star Lan Larison had 191 yards from scrimmage against the Cardinals, lifting his season totals to an incredible 1,425 rushing yards and 842 receiving yards. If you overcompensate in defending Larison, quarterback Miles Hastings (4,148 yards, 35 TDs) will simply torch you by throwing to one of five other targets with at least 33 catches. The Aggies have enough weapons to beat even a good defense, but South Dakota’s is more than good. The Coyotes have allowed just 16.3 points per game thanks to the terrifying combination of MVFC defensive player of the year Mi’Quise Grace and Nick Gaes (combined: 28 TFLs, 17.5 sacks) up front.
USD has allowed at least 28 points for three straight games, however, which might mean the offense has to hold its own in a track meet. That’s doable. In a sign of coach Bob Nielson’s wonderful overall program building, the Yotes are also fourth in offensive SP+, capable of beating teams with either the run — Charles Pierre Jr. and Travis Theis have combined for 2,159 yards and 31 touchdowns running behind an enormous line that averages 6-6 and 310 pounds — or the pass. Lefty quarterback Aidan Bouman has completed 69% of his passes at 13.7 yards per completion. UC Davis has a dynamite safety in Kavir Bains (8.5 TFLs, 15 passes defended), but South Dakota has quite a bit to offer here.
ESPN BET projection: South Dakota 30.5, UC Davis 25.0 (USD -5.5, over/under 55.5)
SP+ projection: South Dakota 26.8, UC Davis 18.6
