Jimmy Butler‘s six-season tenure with the Miami Heat appears to be nearing its end. Butler, who led Miami to the NBA Finals in 2020 and 2023, was suspended by the team Friday for “conduct detrimental to the team,” one day after indicating to the Heat that he would like to be traded.
Butler, who arrived at training camp this season with a declaration of “no shenanigans” had scored just 18 points combined in the past two games after missing the previous five with an illness. ESPN’s Shams Charania reported as early as Dec. 10 that the Heat were listening to offers on Butler, and reported on Dec. 25 that Butler preferred a trade out of Miami.
That escalated to the point that after Thursday’s loss to the Indiana Pacers, Butler said that he wanted to find his joy again on the court. When asked if he could do that in Miami, he answered “probably not.”
ESPN Insiders Tim Bontemps, Bobby Marks, Kevin Pelton and Brian Windhorst look at how the situation between the six-time All-Star and the franchise he’s played for since 2019 got to this point, why a trade might not be as easy as it seems, and what Butler could bring to a contender.
How did Pat Riley go from vowing not to trade Butler to a seven-game suspension with the Heat now listening to trade offers?
Butler’s tactics to force the Heat’s hands and reverse their stance have appeared to work in the short term. The Heat didn’t fully articulate all the aspects of what they felt was his “conduct detrimental” that led to the suspension but Butler clearly wanted to be traded and took measures to get the Heat to come to the same conclusion. His lackluster play the last two games after missing five games with an illness are likely on the list.
In the short term, this play by Butler will cost him $2.3 million in salary but he could eventually win some or all of it back through a planned players’ union grievance. — Brian Windhorst
This isn’t the first time Butler’s tenure with a team has ended poorly. What happened in Chicago, Minnesota and Philadelphia?
Each of those situations were different. Chicago didn’t want to pay Butler a max contract, and thus chose to trade him to Minnesota for a package of young players and draft picks.
The Minnesota situation was very similar to this one: Butler was unhappy with his contract, and requested a trade. There was one massive difference, however: Butler had just turned 29, not 35. He eventually was sent to the 76ers for Dario Saric, Robert Covington, Jerryd Bayless and a second-round pick.
Then, after one season in Philadelphia, the 76ers essentially chose to pay a combination of Tobias Harris, Josh Richardson and Al Horford over Butler, and sent him to Miami in a sign-and-trade during the summer of 2019. — Bontemps
Can the 7-game suspension be extended? Have previous players been suspended this long for similar standoffs?
The suspension includes Saturday’s home game against the Utah Jazz and the upcoming six-game road trip. It is clear that Riley is sending a message that he does not want Butler around the team right now. The unknown is what happens when the suspension ends ahead of Miami’s Jan. 19 home game against the San Antonio Spurs.
Unless Butler is considered to violate the conduct detrimental policy in his contract from the time the suspension starts, Miami cannot extend the suspension to include more games. Because the suspension is by the team and not the NBA, the Heat will not receive luxury tax savings.
Butler is not the only player in the last three seasons to be suspended by his team. In November 2022, the Brooklyn Nets suspended guard Kyrie Irving eight games for being “unfit to be associated” with the team after the guard failed to say he had no antisemitic beliefs. — Marks
How much will Butler be fined and can a grievance be filed?
Butler is being fined $336,543 for each of the seven games missed. The amount equals 1/145 of his $48.8 million salary, totaling $2.4 million. Butler has thirty days to file a grievance and the amount fined will sit in an escrow account until the situation is resolved. The grievance process could take up to a year. The NBA Players Association issued a statement late Friday that the suspension was excessive and inappropriate.
Which teams could actually trade for him?
Butler asking to be traded and the Heat now listening to offers does not change the challenges of finding the former All-Star a new home. The combination of Butler’s $48.8 million salary this season and nearly a third of teams not allowed to take back more salary in a trade makes any potential deal complicated.
Three out of the four teams on Butler’s preferred list — the Dallas Mavericks, the Golden State Warriors, and the Phoenix Suns — would either need to trade a quarter of their roster. The Suns would need to have Bradley Beal waive his no trade clause. Sources told ESPN, that the Heat have no desire to take back the $110 million owed to Beal and that Phoenix would need to find a third team. The Warriors and Mavericks would likely need to find a third or fourth team to reroute some of the contracts sent out.
The Heat also are not allowed to take back more salary because they are an apron team. — Marks
Could Butler help a contender this season and in the future (if he were to re-sign with that team)?
That depends how much Butler benefits from rediscovering the joy in basketball with another team. His 17.6 PPG this season are Butler’s fewest since 2013-14, the year before he won Most Improved Player and was voted an All-Star for the first time, but there’s reason to believe Butler has more to give elsewhere.
Butler’s 21% usage rate is down substantially from last season’s 24%. At the same time, Butler is scoring more efficiently. His .648 true shooting percentage would be the best of his NBA career, narrowly ahead of 2023-24. And Butler’s 58% 2-point shooting is easily a career high, suggesting his scoring downturn is more about being selective than an inability to create shots.
Not only do Butler’s peripheral stats remain strong, we have ample evidence of “Playoff Jimmy” playing his best when the stakes are the highest. During Butler’s four playoff runs in Miami — before he missed the Heat’s 2024 first-round loss to the Celtics with an MCL sprain — he led the NBA with 12.4 wins by my WARP (wins above replacement player) metric over that span.
During the regular season, Butler was just sixth in total WARP during the corresponding seasons. He produced 3.7 more WARP in the playoffs than we’d expect based on his regular-season performance. Only Denver guard Jamal Murray was a greater playoff overperformer than Butler from 2020 through 2023.
At some point, Butler’s age (35) will undoubtedly take a toll, explaining Miami’s reluctance to offer him a max extension. Over the next three seasons, my SCHOENE projection system forecasts Butler to decline by about three wins in terms of regular-season value based on the development of similar players at the same age. Though Butler’s 2025-26 projection still puts him in the NBA’s top 20 players, by 2027-28 that forecast drops to 45th. — Kevin Pelton
What kind of extension is Butler looking for? What’s the most likely outcome ahead of the trade deadline?
Because of the league’s Over-38 rule, the maximum extension Miami could sign Butler for is for two years, $112.6 million. That would replace his $52.4 million player option for next season with a new salary starting at $54.1 million. The second year would pay Butler $58.5 million when he is 37 years old.
If Butler were traded, he would be eligible to sign a two-year, $111 million extension with his new team.
A trade demand by Butler and now suspension does not mean the Heat are mandated to make a trade. If Miami does not receive an offer of their liking, they can either let Butler walk in free agency if he declines his player option — or work together on a trade.
Butler, who will turn 36 in September, does not fit the roster timeline of the Brooklyn Nets, the only team that projects to have more than $40 million in cap space. — Marks
Are we sure he’ll be traded at all?
No. The way things played out with George last year with the Clippers is a blueprint for how this situation could unwind over the next few months.
The longstanding paradigm in the NBA in these situations is that the team with a disgruntled player like Butler “has to get something” and trade him somewhere. However, that was in a prior financial reality that the league existed in.
Under this far more restrictive collective bargaining agreement, the NBA is operating in what is much closer to a hard cap environment than it used to. So if the process of getting something in a deal requires a team team to take back negative long-term salary, that can cause real problems for a team trying to pivot past such a deal in the future. That’s doubly true for the Heat, which remain one of the league’s most desirable destinations for players and want to have as much flexibility to acquire more high-end talent in the future.
That’s one of several reasons why the Heat, according to sources, are reluctant to take back long-term money in a Butler trade. Coupled with the trade restrictions that have made it hard for any big salaries to be moved across the league and sources across the league are far from convinced a deal is guaranteed to happen in the next month. — Bontemps
