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Eric Moody, ESPN
Every season, the Rookie of the Year is one of the most widely followed and anticipated awards handed out in the NBA. Some years, you have a Victor Wembanyama or Chet Holmgren who distance themselves from the pack. Other years, like this one, there is no sure thing and no big frontrunner.
So who has the best chance to take home the hardware this season? It helps if we start by breaking down key trends from the past 20 seasons.
Only eight No. 1 overall picks have taken home the award, including recent winners Wembanyama (2023-24) and Paolo Banchero (2022-23). Surprisingly, only one winner was selected outside the lottery.
A notable 16 of the last 20 winners were top-five draft picks, with guards dominating the award (12 wins), followed by forwards (five) and centers (three).
Finally, Rookie of the Year winners aren’t typically on winning teams — just four winners have made the playoffs in the year they won.
Top contenders
Jared McCain, SG, Philadelphia 76ers (+300)
Selected No. 17 overall by the 76ers, McCain has been playing with something to prove, and it shows. Thriving on a shorthanded 76ers team, he has emerged as a true ROY contender. McCain, whose odds to win the award were 40-1 entering the season, has scored 84 points in his last three games, becoming the first 76ers rookie since Allen Iverson in 1997 to post 80+ points over three games.
What’s working in his favor: McCain is carving out a solid role in the 76ers’ rotation, and his 34-point, 10-assist, six 3-pointer game against Cleveland showed what he’s capable of doing when provided the opportunity. In addition, it’s worth noting that guards have dominated the ROY award over the past 20 seasons.
What’s working against him: Opportunity could be tough to come by, at least to the degree that he had against the Cavaliers. When Joel Embiid, Paul George and Tyrese Maxey are in the lineup, McCain’s playing time and shot attempts are sure to take a hit. That’s something to keep in mind before betting on the Duke product.
Zaccharie Risacher, SF/PF, Atlanta Hawks (+450)
Risacher has been a standout for the Hawks, bringing much-needed energy on both ends of the court. Drafted No. 1 overall, he’s showcasing why Atlanta chose him over other options. He has averaged 16 points and 5.2 rebounds in 26.8 minutes per game, second only to McCain in rookie scoring, over his last five games
What’s working in his favor: Risacher is taking on a bigger role as the Hawks deal with injuries. While this is still Trae Young‘s team following Dejounte Murray‘s departure, the Hawks need a new playmaker. Risacher’s draft pedigree helps him in the ROY race.
What’s working against him: Consistency is the main bugaboo for the 19-year-old. Case in point: in the three games since Risacher poured in a career-high 33 against the Knicks last Wednesday, he has a total of only 32 points. Inefficient shooting is a big part of the issue, as it often is for teenagers in the NBA. Risacher enters Friday shooting 37.2% from the field, 24.6% from 3-point range and 62.2% from the free throw line.
Zach Edey, C, Memphis Grizzlies (+500)
Coming in at 7-foot-4 and 305 pounds, Edey brings a rare physical presence to the court. The No. 9 overall pick and two-time National Player of the Year at Purdue, Edey has been an efficient scorer and excellent rebounder early in his NBA career, averaging 11.3 points and 7.0 rebounds per game and shooting an impressive 62.2% from the field. Though he began the season as the ROY favorite, recent shifts have opened up a valuable betting opportunity.
What’s working for him: Edey dominated the college game and has quickly established himself with a key role on a talented NBA team, starting nine of his first 12 games. His size has proven to be a handful for defenders inside the paint, and there’s no denying his efficiency (62.2 FG%). The biggest question mark is his playing time, as he’s only at 20.3 MPG, which could hinder his ability to maintain momentum and accumulate numbers.
What’s working against him: Historically, almost all ROY winners over the last 20 seasons have logged at least 29 minutes per game, with the exception of Malcolm Brogdon, who averaged 26.6 minutes in 2016-17. Edey is well below that as things stand right now, and adding too many minutes to his workload could add an element of injury risk.
Bub Carrington, PG, Washington Wizards (+575)
Only 19 years old and selected out of Pitt at No. 14, the final pick of the draft lottery, Carrington has been a pleasant surprise in the opening month of the season. With good size at 6-foot-4, his versatile game as a scorer, distributor and rebounder has quickly earned the trust of Wizards coach Brian Keefe.
What’s working for him: Carrington has started nine of his first 10 NBA games, averaging a rookie-best 30.0 MPG. The Wizards coaching staff has shown confidence in the young guard and a willingness to let him learn on the fly as a teenage starter. For a rebuilding team with few playmakers, Carrington is making a notable impact and getting as much opportunity as anyone in this rookie class.
What’s working against him: Carrington is still working to establish himself as a recognizable name in this league, and he has some ground to make up behind McCain and players who were drafted higher, like Risacher, Edey and his teammate Alexandre Sarr.
Long shots to consider
Alexandre Sarr, PF/C, Washington Wizards (+1200)
The Wizards are firmly in rebuilding mode, and Sarr is on a team with limited playmakers outside of Jordan Poole and Kyle Kuzma. Known for his defensive prowess and rebounding, Sarr has averaged 9.5 points, 5.8 rebounds and 2.3 blocks per game. If he can improve his scoring, Sarr could become a stronger contender, especially considering his prior experience in Overtime Elite and the Australian Basketball League.
What’s working in his favor: The minutes are there for the No. 2 overall pick, who has averaged 25.3 MPG in his first 10 NBA games, all starts. That number figures to rise on this young Wizards team that is off to a 2-8 start and realistically at least a year or two away from flipping the switch into win mode.
What’s working against him: Despite his strong defensive impact, Sarr has struggled offensively, shooting just 34.3% from the floor. His shooting issues were evident during the Las Vegas Summer League, which caused his Rookie of the Year odds to drop over the summer.
Donovan Clingan, C, Portland Trail Blazers (+2500)
Clingan delivered a standout performance Wednesday night, filling in for the injured Deandre Ayton against the Timberwolves. He recorded his first career double-double with 17 points and 12 rebounds, but that was not all. Clingan also swatted eight shots, tied for the second-most blocks by a Trail Blazers rookie.
What’s working in his favor: The breakout game could help Clingan’s chances of increased playing time. In a league dominated by high scorers, it was refreshing to see Clingan’s masterclass in hustle and defensive dominance in the paint.
What’s working against him: To really stand out in the race, he’ll need more minutes on the court and consistent production, which will not be easy as long as Ayton and Robert Williams III are on the roster.
Others to watch: Stephon Castle, PG, San Antonio Spurs (+1700); Dalton Knecht, SG, Los Angeles Lakers (+1800); Jaylen Wells, SF, Memphis Grizzlies (+1800)
